The news that the Syrian government has used war planes in its attempts to quell the rising rebellion of the Free Syrian Army marks a turning point in the conflict. Readers of this blog will note that I have, up to this point, been doubtful at the very least of the chances of a diplomatic solution to the Syrian Civil War. However, this latest government tactic makes President Bashar Al-Assad’s intention to hold onto power clear. Even at the cost of many lives.
It is clear that the UN has failed (see my previous post) and there is no longer any chance of solving the conflict with clever words. Russia and China’s vetoes have been held off resolutions for so long that the only avenue left to the UN is armed intervention. Again Russia and China will object, however eventually they will agree to abstain as the rest of the UN security council step up their arguments for an escalation of their influence in Syria.
So what’s going to happen? The UN will back the Free Syrian Army. However, they will not do so directly. They will provide funds, weapons, and, at the very most, a no-fly zone over the country. This formula worked in Libya, and the end result was a country that was willing/needed to cooperate with the international community. More and more the UN needs ally states in the Middle East, and Syria would be a perfect one. As always, keep an eye on the news.